Business cycle dating committee of the national bureau of economic
Some business analysts use the business cycle model and terminology to study and explain fluctuations in business inventory and other individual elements of corporate operations.But the term "business cycle" is still primarily associated with larger (industry-wide, regional, national, or even international) business trends.
To submit an article please follow the submission guidelines for the appropriate journal(s).The business cycle is the periodic but irregular up-and-down movement in economic activity, measured by fluctuations in real gross domestic product (GDP) and other macroeconomic variables.A business cycle is typically characterized by four phases—recession, recovery, growth, and decline—that repeat themselves over time.Economic growth is in essence a period of sustained expansion.Hallmarks of this part of the business cycle include increased consumer confidence, which translates into higher levels of business activity.Through October, the decline in employment has been similar to the average over the first 7 months of recessions. Figure 4 shows the movements of real personal income less transfers.
The cumulative decline is now about 0.7 percent, about two-thirds of the total decline in the average recession. A peak occurred in September 2000 and the index declined over the next 12 months by close to 6 percent, surpassing the average decline in the earlier recessions of 4.6 percent. This measure has continued to rise in recent months and has not yet reached a peak.
The data continue to show substantial declines in real activity in manufacturing, the sector reflected in the industrial production index, and in real manufacturing and trade sales.
Aggregate employment has fallen substantially as well.
The expansion lasted exactly 10 years, the longest in the NBER's chronology.
A recession is a significant decline in activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, visible in industrial production, employment, real income, and wholesale-retail trade.
Employment reached a peak in March 2001 and declined subsequently.